From skin cream to guns¹

Let us look at this phenomenon. In the first step of the study, the participants were tasked with filling out a test to evaluate their numeracy, the ability to understand and work with numbers. In these tests short statements regarding probabilities and percentages have to be correctly interpreted⁴. The numeracy scores were later used to group the participants into 2 groups, high and low.

Next, the study presented the participants with the following table:

Table 1: Effect of using skin cream on a rash.

	Rash got better	Rash got worse
Used new skin cream	233	75
Did not use new skin cream	107	21

Participants were then asked whether the new skin cream was helping. At a first glance, simply comparing the columns, it might seem like the answer is yes. But, if one takes a second look and starts playing with the numbers, one will quickly realise that this is not the case, and the cream might even be harmful. The data show that with skin cream usage roughly 75% of rashes got better and 25% got worse, whereas without 84% improved and 16% woresend.

Unsurprisingly, the higher one's numeracy was, the better their assessment of the table was. Overall, over 40% identified the correct trend, and within the high numeracy group it was around 75%. However, the same experiment was conducted once more. This time, instead of comparing the results of skin cream usage, the labels showed the outcome of gun control:

Table 1: Effect of a carrying ban on crime rates

	Crime decreased	Crime increased
Cities that did ban carrying concealed handguns in public	233	75
Cities that did not ban carrying concealed handguns in public	107	21

The numbers in the tables stayed exactly the same in both experiments. Nonetheless, the results for interpreting the data correctly worsened drastically. How can this be, if the data is the same?

It is important to note, participants were also asked to indicate whether they are leaning more towards the Republican or the Democratic party (USA). This seemingly unrelated question had a major impact on the results for the second table.

While there is almost no difference within the numeracy groups and between the political groups for the skin cream, the same cannot be said for the gun ban. Democrats were overall more likely to come to the conclusion gun bans helped decrease crime, whereas republicans figured crime increased with fewer guns. Even when labels were switched and therefore indicating the opposite result, the interpretations of both democrats and republicans came to the conclusion which supported their beliefs. While the effect of political belief influencing the interpretation could be noticed within both numeracy groups, the difference was significantly more prevalent for the high numeracy group. This is not just surprising but even counterintuitive, since one would expect the ability of interpreting to be independent of political beliefs.

To the moon and beyond

To get a better understanding of why we are so prone to neglect data and would rather trust our ideals, let us take a look at conspiracy beliefs. Conspiracy beliefs have gained massive popularity over the last years, especially during the Covid pandemic. Questioning, whether the earth is a globe or floating like a giant frisbee through space and time; whether Neil Armstrong was the first human on the moon or just an actor; whether vaccines help eradicate diseases or cause autism. The list is endless and new conspiracies keep popping up.

Often a narrative of “us versus them” is the foundation for the conspiracy², whereby someone is trying to hide something from the public and the conspiracy believers are trying to uncover the truth. They see themselves as the ones who saw through all the schemes and need to wake up the society - everybody who doesn’t agree is either in on it or blind to the “facts”. It all becomes a black and white image of the world.

Knowledge is Power

What draws people to ‘investigating’ and disputing scientifically proven concepts? The main reason seems to be a lack of trust for those in power, like the government, media, academia and industry.

A possible explanation for the inability to break out of our individual echo chambers is confirmation bias³. Hearing our own opinions from other people is reassuring. Not only that, but the confirmation bias also lets us ignore and block out contradicting opinions. This creates a downward spiral, where one’s ideals are never challenged or questioned. This goes hand in hand with the “us vs. them” mentality². People are stuck in a like-minded group where a common consensus can be found, and the opinion of everybody else on the outside is automatically invalidated.

Open eyes, ears and mind

Striving for new information has always been one of the strong suits of humankind. Being able to research a topic and interpret the data is becoming more important every day. Fake news is all around us; unverified beliefs are spread everywhere on social media and it is hard to keep up with all of the information out there. But, it is also necessary to get information from outside of one's own bubble, to avoid being caught in an echo chamber. We should try to keep an open mind when discussing or researching a topic. Trying to understand one another’s standpoint might lead to more constructive discourse and help us to get a better grasp of all the nuances.

Sources

Video Inspiration: On These Questions, Smarter People Do Worse – Veritasium https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

[1] Kahan, D. M., Peters, E., Dawson, E. C., & Slovic, P. (2017). Motivated numeracy and enlightened self-government. Behavioural public policy, 1(1), 54-86.

[2] Weigmann, K. (2018). The genesis of a conspiracy theory: Why do people believe in scientific conspiracy theories and how do they spread?. EMBO reports, 19(4), e45935.

[3] Klayman, J. (1995). Varieties of confirmation bias. Psychology of learning and motivation, 32, 385-418.

[4] Example Numeracy test: https://www.idrlabs.com/numera...